What Do The "Numbers" Really Mean?

There has been a lot of talk about the Toronto Real Estate Market, high numbers and percentages have people talking but what do these numbers really mean and how do they effect you?

The stats for June have been released and as ‘headline grabbing’ as they are what do they really mean?  These numbers always represent the GTA as a whole but fail to target the specific statistics in each individual neighbourhood.  The truth is, our market is very diverse and the numbers of one area are not necessarily reflective of the market as a whole.

We have several different areas within Toronto proper let alone the GTA and there are many types of properties within each area.  Some areas such as downtown Toronto are very much condo centric, we have areas that have more single family homes, properties that are close to transportation and areas that are still developing or gentrifying as we call it.  You really can’t expect these numbers at large to reflect what is actually happening in the neighbourhood where you live or would like to live as they are too general and I believe, quite misleading.

I did a quick look comparing June 2016 to June 2017 for  a couple of areas and the numbers are very different. In the downtown core, Condo sales are up from last June 24.92 %, while in Leslieville they are virtually the same as last year and in the Beach area they are up 16%.  I also took a look at detached and semi detached homes in the Beach as it has more single family homes than downtown, detached homes are up 12% while semi’s are only up 4% over June last year.  So in just this small sample of Toronto markets the numbers are not reflective of the statistics that are published.

It is quite true that the housing market has dropped in price across the board in these areas since March of this year.  I did some research on this as well and downtown condos are down 2.7%, Leslieville condos are down almost 17%, Beach condos are down 15%, detached houses are down 17% and semi’s are down 1.4% since the peak of the Spring Market.  Is this because of the new rules, perhaps but we will never really know because the Spring Market was not allowed to play out on it’s own.  I am not so sure that the foreign Buyer tax had anything to do with our downtown market slowing down other than Buyers thinking it would and thus deciding to wait.  The people who are selling now probably have to for a specific reason and they are the ones hurting.  Some bought at peak and now have to sell in order to close and therefore not getting the amount of money they thought they would.  That brings a whole new set of problems to the Real Estate market that is not part of this conversation.

So what does this mean for you as a Seller or a Buyer? The Spring Market was exceptional but it is now in the past.  Sellers are still getting higher than last year prices and Buyers can now purchase without the frenzy.  Don’t take the averages that the headlines present as applicable to your home or the one you wish to purchase.  Work with someone who knows the market and more specifically, the area where you are Buying or selling.

- Diane Tobia